极端温度对中国茶叶生产的影响

Abstract：

The production of tea (Camellia sinensis (L.) Kuntze), the worlds second most consumed beverage, is susceptible to extreme weather events. However, our understanding about the impacts of extreme temperatures and climate change on tea yields remains fairly limited. Here we quantify the historical and predict future fluctuations in tea yield caused by extreme temperatures in China, the largest tea producing country. We found that both heat and cold extremes were associated with significantly reduced tea yields. In the present climate, dominating cold extremes influence more than half of Chinas tea production, with a maximum of 56.3% reduced annual production. In the near future, we predict positive net impacts of climate change on tea yield in all study regions at both the 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C global warming levels. Climate warming may diminish the negative impacts of cold extremes to 14%, especially at the current most affected northern tea growing regions (>28° N). However, new areas of yield reduction by intensified heat extremes will emerge, up to 14%–26% yield losses estimated at the Yangtze River (~30° N) and southern China (

茶是世界上消费量第二大的饮料，易受极端天气事件的影响。但是，我们对极端温度和气候变化对茶产量的影响的理解仍然十分有限。在这里，我们对历史进行了量化，并预测了最大的茶叶生产国中国的极端温度所导致的未来茶叶产量的波动。我们发现，极端高温和低温都与茶产量显着降低有关。在当前的气候下，极端的极端气候影响着中国一半以上的茶叶产量，最多降低了56.3％的年产量。在不久的将来，我们预测在全球升温1.5°C和2.0°C的所有研究区域，气候变化对茶产量的净影响将为正。气候变暖可能会将极端寒冷的负面影响减少到14％，尤其是在当前受影响最严重的北部茶叶种植地区（> 28°N）。但是，将会出现新的极端极端降温导致的减产新领域，在长江（ 30°N）和华南地区（