茶界丨茶世界2022年茶叶价格预计将上涨

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作者：Dan Bolton

翻译：于英杰

因运输和物流激增、燃料和石油价格变贵、劳动力成本增加等综合因素，全球茶叶出口价格正在小幅上涨。

Globally tea export prices are edging upward, driven by combined spikes in transportation and logistics, more costly fuel and petroleum-derived fertilizer, and increased labor expense.

从产茶区域来看，茶叶价格趋势喜忧参半。印度茶叶产量占到全球的20%。2021年9月份，印度茶叶出口量下降10%，但出口金额上涨。印度报告称，在疫情爆发的一年里，印度本土茶叶价格下跌， 2021年上半年价格上涨。11月，加尔各答的红碎茶拍卖价格降至2.78美元/公斤，2020 年同期为2.97美元/公斤。

Regionally the trend is mixed. Exports through September are down 10% by volume but up in value in India, which produces 20% of the world’s tea. India reports falling domestic prices following a pandemic year that boosted prices through the first half of 2021. In November, auction prices for CTC in Kolkata fell to an average of $2.78 (INRs209) per kilo, down from $2.97 during the same period in 2020.

相比之下，根据东非茶叶贸易协会 (EATTA) 的数据，上周肯尼亚的茶叶拍卖价格为2.40美元/公斤，为五年来最高纪录。肯尼亚的茶叶产量总体下降了10%。

In contrast, last week Kenya auctioned tea at a five-year high of $2.40 (KSH271) per kilo, according to the East African Tea Traders Association (EATTA). Production there is also down 10% overall.

产量下降是茶叶贸易经济正逐渐从供过于求转向供不应求的早期迹象。经济学人智库 (EIU) 预测全球茶叶产量将小幅增加至 627.9 万吨（近63 亿公斤），而消费量将增加至 653.8 万吨，造成 26万吨的赤字。到 2022年，这一赤字将增加到 36.3万吨。

Declines in production are an early sign that the economics of the tea trade is gradually shifting from oversupply to scarcity. The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) predicts output globally will increase slightly to 6.279 million metric tons (6.3 billion kilos) while consumption rises to 6.538 million metric tons, creating a deficit of 260,000 metric tons. That deficit will increase to 363,000 metric tons in 2022.

低档茶仍供不应求，而劣质茶需求疲软。

There remains a glut of low-grade tea, but demand for inferior tea is slack.

根据《贸易经济》的数据，在全球范围内，茶叶价格上涨了7.32%。其中，中国茶叶价格自 2021年初以来每公斤上涨了0.21美元。这家分析公司采用宏观模型和分析师的预期，基于基准差价合约，预测 2022 年茶叶的交易价格将达到每公斤 3.30 美元。差价合约 (CFD) 是买卖双方之间的协议，规定买方将向卖方支付货品的当前价值与其在合同时的价值之间的差额（如果差额为负，则由卖方支付）。《贸易经济》预测，到2022年底，茶叶平均价格可能达到4.10美元/公斤。

Globally, tea prices, led by China, have increased by $0.21 per kilo since the beginning of 2021, up 7.32% according to Trading Economics. The analytics firm, using macro models and analyst expectations, based on benchmark CFDs, predicts tea will trade at $3.30 per kilo in 2022. A contract for difference (CFD) is an agreement between a buyer and seller stipulating that the buyer will pay the seller the difference between the current value of an asset and its value at contract time (if the difference is negative, then the seller pays instead). Trading Economics forecasts tea prices could reach an average of $4.10 per kilo by year-end.

如果这成为现实，这将是茶叶在过去十年中第2次超过每公斤 4 美元的门槛。更有可能的是，价格上涨将引发产量增加。印度尼西亚贸易委员会使用联合国粮农组织数据进行的一项研究计算了产量增加对价格的影响。

If that comes to pass it will be only the second time tea has crossed the $4 per kilo threshold in the past decade. More likely is that rising prices will trigger increases in production. A study by the Indonesian Board of Trade using United Nations FAO data calculated the impact of increased production on prices.

“如果对最近的茶叶高价格反应过度，比如产量增加5%，结果可能会大不相同……，清算价格将比2.54美元/公斤的基准价格降低 17%。”印度尼西亚贸易委员会主席 Iwan Cahyo Suryadi 写到。

“If there is an overreaction to recent high prices which, for example, would result in a 5% increase in production, the results can be quite different…. the clearing price would be 17% less than the baseline price at $2.54 per kg,” writes Iwan Cahyo Suryadi, Chairperson, Board of Commissioners Indonesia Board of Trade.

“如果对当前高价格的反应更加强烈，导致产量比基准增加10%，那么价格可能会下降 38%。” Suryadi说。

“If the reaction to the current high prices is even stronger, resulting in a 10% increase in production over the baseline increase, then prices could be 38% lower,” according to Suryadi.

经济学人智库(EIU)估计茶叶价格将上涨至接近长期平均水平，“我们预计，因为供不应求，加上一些市场（特别是欧洲和北美）的茶叶需求逐渐复苏，2021年剩余时间茶叶价格会稳中有升。我们估计2021年全年平均价格为2.69美元/公斤，比 2020 年下降 0.5%。2022年茶叶均价将上涨 8.7%，至2.92 美元/公斤。”

EIU estimates a price increase that is close to the long-term average, “we expect concerns about supply and a gradual recovery in demand in some markets (particularly in Europe and North America) to provide some support to prices in the remainder of 2021. We estimate that prices will average $2.69 per kilo in full-year 2021, representing a 0.5% decline from 2020. We are forecasting an 8.7% increase in average prices in 2022, to $2.92 per kilo.”

数据来自联合国粮农组织价格监测和分析工具

茶叶洞察：茶叶拍卖的长期平均价格为2.85美元/公斤。优质茶更有可能以更高的价格直接销售。2020 年，全球茶叶出口总额71 亿美元，自 2016 年以来下降了 4.3%。根据 Worlds Top Exports 网站的数据，从 2019 年到 2020 年，全球茶叶出口额同比下降了 8.6%。中国茶叶（主要是绿茶）占全球茶叶出口额的 29%，其次是肯尼亚，市场份额为 16%（主要是红茶），斯里兰卡占比10%，印度占比是9.7%。

Biz Insight – The long-term average price of commodity tea at auction is $2.85 per kilo. Quality tea is more likely to be sold direct and at significantly higher prices. Sales of tea exported by all countries totaled $7.1 billion in 2020, down 4.3% by value since 2016. Year-over-year the value worldwide of tea exports declined an average of 8.6% from 2019 to 2020, according to the website World’s Top Exports. China (dominant in green tea) accounts for 29% of global sales of tea exports by value followed by Kenya with a 16% market share (dominant in black tea), Sri Lanka 10%, and India 9.7% both have about a 10% share.

本文章刊于2022年1月第479期《茶世界》杂志

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